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Ahal vs Şagadam — Ýokary Liga 2020

Ahal
Ahal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Şagadam
Şagadam
5/30/2025Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 12Ahal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Ahal61%
×Draw22%
Şagadam17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahal
1.91
Şagadam
0.89

Ahal creates 115% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ahal
2.23
Şagadam
0.98

allows per match

Ahal
0.79
Şagadam
1.58

finishing

Ahal+0.00on par
Şagadam+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahal ↓

Şagadam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ahal or draw
83%
Ahal or Şagadam
78%
Draw or Şagadam
39%

Winning margin

Ahal wins by 2+
36%
Şagadam wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ahal 1+ goals
85%
Ahal 2+ goals
57%
Ahal 3+ goals
30%
Şagadam 1+ goals
59%
Şagadam 2+ goals
22%
Şagadam 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ahal (draw refunded)
78%
Şagadam (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahal at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.79 · 84 matches

Şagadam away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahal attack 2.23 + Şagadam defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.91

Şagadam attack 0.98 + Ahal defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ahal scores more
61%
level
22%
Şagadam scores more
17%

Ahal at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Ahal 1–1 Şagadam

Ahal and Şagadam drew 1-1 in Ýokary Liga on May 30, 2025.

The match was played at Ahal Stadium in Abadan.