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Säffle SK vs Zenith — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Säffle SK
Säffle SK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zenith
Zenith
6/10/2023Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 11Sporthälla IP A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Säffle SK46%
×Draw23%
Zenith31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Säffle SK
1.81
Zenith
1.45

Säffle SK creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Säffle SK
1.31
Zenith
1.31

allows per match

Säffle SK
1.58
Zenith
2.31

finishing

Säffle SK+0.00on par
Zenith+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Säffle SK ↓

Zenith →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Säffle SK or draw
69%
Säffle SK or Zenith
77%
Draw or Zenith
54%

Winning margin

Säffle SK wins by 2+
25%
Zenith wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Säffle SK 1+ goals
84%
Säffle SK 2+ goals
54%
Säffle SK 3+ goals
27%
Zenith 1+ goals
77%
Zenith 2+ goals
42%
Zenith 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Säffle SK (draw refunded)
60%
Zenith (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Säffle SK at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

Zenith away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Säffle SK attack 1.31 + Zenith defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.81

Zenith attack 1.31 + Säffle SK defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Säffle SK scores more
46%
level
23%
Zenith scores more
31%

Säffle SK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Säffle SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Säffle SK 0–1 Zenith

Zenith beat Säffle SK 1-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sporthälla IP A-plan in Säffle.