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Safa vs Al Hikma — Premier League 2025

Safa
Safa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Hikma
Al Hikma
I. Batran 90+8', 23'
B. Diop 50'
7/7/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 13Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Safa47%
×Draw27%
Al Hikma26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Safa
1.38
Al Hikma
0.96

Safa creates 44% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 60 away

creates per match

Safa
1.52
Al Hikma
0.85

allows per match

Safa
1.06
Al Hikma
1.23

finishing

Safa+0.00on par
Al Hikma+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Safa ↓

Al Hikma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Safa or draw
74%
Safa or Al Hikma
73%
Draw or Al Hikma
53%

Winning margin

Safa wins by 2+
22%
Al Hikma wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Safa 1+ goals
75%
Safa 2+ goals
40%
Safa 3+ goals
16%
Al Hikma 1+ goals
62%
Al Hikma 2+ goals
25%
Al Hikma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Safa (draw refunded)
64%
Al Hikma (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Safa at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches

Al Hikma away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.23 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Safa attack 1.52 + Al Hikma defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Hikma attack 0.85 + Safa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Safa scores more
47%
level
27%
Al Hikma scores more
26%

Safa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Safa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
I. Batran
50'
B. Diop
90+6'
H. Sharafeddine
90+8'
I. Batran
Safa
Al
Tarek Al Jabban
Manager: Tarek Al Jabban
Paul Rustom
Manager: Paul Rustom

Match Recap: Safa vs Al Hikma

Safa beat Al Hikma 2-1 in Premier League on July 7, 2025.

Goals: I. Batran (23', 90+8'), B. Diop (50').

The match was played at Fouad Shehab Stadium in Jounieh (Jounie).