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Sadovo vs Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sadovo
Sadovo
FT
2 – 0
Svilengrad
Svilengrad
5/18/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 32Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sadovo47%
×Draw26%
Svilengrad28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sadovo
1.53
Svilengrad
1.11

Sadovo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sadovo
0.94
Svilengrad
0.69

allows per match

Sadovo
1.53
Svilengrad
2.12

finishing

Sadovo+0.00on par
Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sadovo ↓

Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sadovo or draw
72%
Sadovo or Svilengrad
74%
Draw or Svilengrad
53%

Winning margin

Sadovo wins by 2+
24%
Svilengrad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sadovo 1+ goals
78%
Sadovo 2+ goals
45%
Sadovo 3+ goals
20%
Svilengrad 1+ goals
67%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
30%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sadovo (draw refunded)
63%
Svilengrad (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sadovo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Svilengrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sadovo attack 0.94 + Svilengrad defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.53

Svilengrad attack 0.69 + Sadovo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sadovo scores more
47%
level
26%
Svilengrad scores more
28%

Sadovo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sadovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sadovo vs Svilengrad

Sadovo beat Svilengrad 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo).