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Sadovo vs Sozopol — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sadovo
Sadovo
FT
1 – 3
Sozopol
Sozopol
3/16/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 21Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sadovo31%
×Draw27%
Sozopol42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sadovo
1.11
Sozopol
1.33

Sozopol creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 83 away

creates per match

Sadovo
0.94
Sozopol
1.13

allows per match

Sadovo
1.53
Sozopol
1.29

finishing

Sadovo+0.00on par
Sozopol+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sadovo ↓

Sozopol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sadovo or draw
58%
Sadovo or Sozopol
73%
Draw or Sozopol
69%

Winning margin

Sadovo wins by 2+
12%
Sozopol wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sadovo 1+ goals
67%
Sadovo 2+ goals
30%
Sadovo 3+ goals
10%
Sozopol 1+ goals
74%
Sozopol 2+ goals
38%
Sozopol 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sadovo (draw refunded)
43%
Sozopol (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sadovo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Sozopol away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.29 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sadovo attack 0.94 + Sozopol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sozopol attack 1.13 + Sadovo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sadovo scores more
31%
level
27%
Sozopol scores more
42%

Sozopol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sadovo 1–3 Sozopol

Sozopol beat Sadovo 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo).