Sadovo 0–1 Rozova dolina: Result & Stats

Sadovo

FT

0 – 1

Rozova dolina

4/20/2019

Third League - Southeast · Round 27Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sadovo37%

×Draw26%

Rozova dolina37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SadovoExpected goals in this matchRozova dolina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.33

Sadovo

1.34

Rozova dolina

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 136 away

0.94

creates per match

1.13

1.53

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Sadovo

0.94

Rozova dolina

1.13

allows per match

Sadovo

1.53

Rozova dolina

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sadovo+0.00on par

Rozova dolina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sadovo ↓

Rozova dolina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sadovo or draw

63%

Sadovo or Rozova dolina

74%

Draw or Rozova dolina

63%

Winning margin

Sadovo wins by 2+

17%

Rozova dolina wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sadovo 1+ goals

74%

Sadovo 2+ goals

39%

Sadovo 3+ goals

15%

Rozova dolina 1+ goals

74%

Rozova dolina 2+ goals

38%

Rozova dolina 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sadovo (draw refunded)

50%

Rozova dolina (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sadovo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Rozova dolina away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.74 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sadovo attack 0.94 + Rozova dolina defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rozova dolina attack 1.13 + Sadovo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sadovo scores more

37%

level

26%

Rozova dolina scores more

37%

Sadovo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sadovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff