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Sadovo vs Minyor Radnevo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sadovo
Sadovo
FT
1 – 2
Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
10/20/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 11Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sadovo29%
×Draw28%
Minyor Radnevo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sadovo
0.99
Minyor Radnevo
1.27

Minyor Radnevo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

creates per match

Sadovo
0.94
Minyor Radnevo
1.00

allows per match

Sadovo
1.53
Minyor Radnevo
1.04

finishing

Sadovo+0.00on par
Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sadovo ↓

Minyor Radnevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sadovo or draw
57%
Sadovo or Minyor Radnevo
72%
Draw or Minyor Radnevo
71%

Winning margin

Sadovo wins by 2+
11%
Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sadovo 1+ goals
63%
Sadovo 2+ goals
26%
Sadovo 3+ goals
8%
Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
72%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
36%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sadovo (draw refunded)
40%
Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sadovo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Minyor Radnevo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sadovo attack 0.94 + Minyor Radnevo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.00 + Sadovo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sadovo scores more
29%
level
28%
Minyor Radnevo scores more
43%

Minyor Radnevo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Minyor Radnevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sadovo 1–2 Minyor Radnevo

Minyor Radnevo beat Sadovo 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo).