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Sadovo vs Maritsa Plovdiv — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sadovo
Sadovo
FT
0 – 3
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
3/30/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sadovo26%
×Draw25%
Maritsa Plovdiv49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sadovo
1.05
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.56

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 81 away

creates per match

Sadovo
0.94
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.59

allows per match

Sadovo
1.53
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.16

finishing

Sadovo+0.00on par
Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sadovo ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sadovo or draw
51%
Sadovo or Maritsa Plovdiv
75%
Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv
74%

Winning margin

Sadovo wins by 2+
10%
Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sadovo 1+ goals
65%
Sadovo 2+ goals
28%
Sadovo 3+ goals
9%
Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
79%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
46%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sadovo (draw refunded)
34%
Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sadovo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sadovo attack 0.94 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.59 + Sadovo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sadovo scores more
26%
level
25%
Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
49%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sadovo vs Maritsa Plovdiv

Maritsa Plovdiv beat Sadovo 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 30, 2019.