Sadovo 0–1 Karnobat: Result & Stats

Sadovo

FT

0 – 1

Karnobat

3/2/2019

Third League - Southeast · Round 19Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sadovo51%

×Draw24%

Karnobat25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SadovoExpected goals in this matchKarnobat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.16

Sadovo

1.76

Karnobat

1.16

Sadovo creates 52% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 118 away

0.94

creates per match

0.79

1.53

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Sadovo

0.94

Karnobat

0.79

allows per match

Sadovo

1.53

Karnobat

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sadovo+0.00on par

Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sadovo ↓

Karnobat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sadovo or draw

75%

Sadovo or Karnobat

76%

Draw or Karnobat

49%

Winning margin

Sadovo wins by 2+

28%

Karnobat wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sadovo 1+ goals

83%

Sadovo 2+ goals

52%

Sadovo 3+ goals

26%

Karnobat 1+ goals

69%

Karnobat 2+ goals

32%

Karnobat 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sadovo (draw refunded)

67%

Karnobat (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sadovo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sadovo attack 0.94 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.76

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Sadovo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sadovo scores more

51%

level

24%

Karnobat scores more

25%

Sadovo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sadovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff