Sadovo 0–0 Haskovo: Result & Stats

Sadovo

FT

0 – 0

Haskovo

9/22/2018

Third League - Southeast · Round 7Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sadovo38%

×Draw27%

Haskovo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SadovoExpected goals in this matchHaskovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.20

Sadovo

1.28

Haskovo

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

0.94

creates per match

0.87

1.53

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Sadovo

0.94

Haskovo

0.87

allows per match

Sadovo

1.53

Haskovo

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sadovo+0.00on par

Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sadovo ↓

Haskovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sadovo or draw

65%

Sadovo or Haskovo

73%

Draw or Haskovo

62%

Winning margin

Sadovo wins by 2+

17%

Haskovo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sadovo 1+ goals

72%

Sadovo 2+ goals

37%

Sadovo 3+ goals

14%

Haskovo 1+ goals

70%

Haskovo 2+ goals

34%

Haskovo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sadovo (draw refunded)

53%

Haskovo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sadovo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Haskovo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.62 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sadovo attack 0.94 + Haskovo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.28

Haskovo attack 0.87 + Sadovo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sadovo scores more

38%

level

27%

Haskovo scores more

35%

Sadovo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sadovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff