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Sadovo vs Borislav 2009 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sadovo
Sadovo
FT
3 – 2
Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
10/27/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 12Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sadovo49%
×Draw24%
Borislav 200927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sadovo
1.73
Borislav 2009
1.22

Sadovo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

creates per match

Sadovo
0.94
Borislav 2009
0.91

allows per match

Sadovo
1.53
Borislav 2009
2.52

finishing

Sadovo+0.00on par
Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sadovo ↓

Borislav 2009 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sadovo or draw
73%
Sadovo or Borislav 2009
76%
Draw or Borislav 2009
51%

Winning margin

Sadovo wins by 2+
27%
Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sadovo 1+ goals
82%
Sadovo 2+ goals
52%
Sadovo 3+ goals
25%
Borislav 2009 1+ goals
70%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
34%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sadovo (draw refunded)
65%
Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sadovo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sadovo attack 0.94 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.73

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Sadovo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sadovo scores more
49%
level
24%
Borislav 2009 scores more
27%

Sadovo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sadovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sadovo vs Borislav 2009

Sadovo beat Borislav 2009 3-2 in Third League - Southeast on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo).