Sadovo 1–3 Atletik Kuklen: Result & Stats

Sadovo

FT

1 – 3

Atletik Kuklen

8/11/2018

Third League - Southeast · Round 1Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sadovo44%

×Draw25%

Atletik Kuklen31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SadovoExpected goals in this matchAtletik Kuklen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.27

Sadovo

1.57

Atletik Kuklen

1.27

Sadovo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 135 away

0.94

creates per match

1.00

1.53

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Sadovo

0.94

Atletik Kuklen

1.00

allows per match

Sadovo

1.53

Atletik Kuklen

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sadovo+0.00on par

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sadovo ↓

Atletik Kuklen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sadovo or draw

69%

Sadovo or Atletik Kuklen

75%

Draw or Atletik Kuklen

56%

Winning margin

Sadovo wins by 2+

22%

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sadovo 1+ goals

79%

Sadovo 2+ goals

46%

Sadovo 3+ goals

21%

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals

72%

Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals

36%

Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sadovo (draw refunded)

59%

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sadovo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Atletik Kuklen away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.21 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sadovo attack 0.94 + Atletik Kuklen defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.57

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.00 + Sadovo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sadovo scores more

44%

level

25%

Atletik Kuklen scores more

31%

Sadovo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sadovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff