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Sacramento Republic vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC IIadvanced
10/21/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Conference - Quarter-finalsPapa Murphy’s Park (Sacramento, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Sacramento Republic57%
×Draw22%
Sporting KC II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sacramento Republic
1.90
Sporting KC II
1.05

Sacramento Republic creates 81% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sacramento Republic
1.61
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Sacramento Republic
0.93
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Sacramento Republic+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacramento Republic ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sacramento Republic or draw
79%
Sacramento Republic or Sporting KC II
78%
Draw or Sporting KC II
43%

Winning margin

Sacramento Republic wins by 2+
33%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sacramento Republic 1+ goals
85%
Sacramento Republic 2+ goals
56%
Sacramento Republic 3+ goals
29%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
65%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
28%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sacramento Republic (draw refunded)
73%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacramento Republic at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.93 · 139 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacramento Republic attack 1.61 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.90

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Sacramento Republic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sacramento Republic scores more
57%
level
22%
Sporting KC II scores more
21%

Sacramento Republic at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sacramento Republic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sacramento Republic 1 – 2 Sporting KC II

Sporting KC II beat Sacramento Republic 2-1 in USL Championship on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Papa Murphy’s Park (Sacramento, California).