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Sacramento Republic vs OKC Energy — USL Championship 2018

Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
OKC Energy
OKC Energy
7/22/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 33Papa Murphy’s Park (Sacramento, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Sacramento Republic52%
×Draw24%
OKC Energy24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sacramento Republic
1.69
OKC Energy
1.08

Sacramento Republic creates 56% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 62 away

creates per match

Sacramento Republic
1.61
OKC Energy
1.24

allows per match

Sacramento Republic
0.93
OKC Energy
1.76

finishing

Sacramento Republic+0.00on par
OKC Energy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacramento Republic ↓

OKC Energy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sacramento Republic or draw
76%
Sacramento Republic or OKC Energy
76%
Draw or OKC Energy
48%

Winning margin

Sacramento Republic wins by 2+
28%
OKC Energy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sacramento Republic 1+ goals
82%
Sacramento Republic 2+ goals
50%
Sacramento Republic 3+ goals
24%
OKC Energy 1+ goals
66%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
29%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sacramento Republic (draw refunded)
68%
OKC Energy (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacramento Republic at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.93 · 139 matches

OKC Energy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacramento Republic attack 1.61 + OKC Energy defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

OKC Energy attack 1.24 + Sacramento Republic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sacramento Republic scores more
52%
level
24%
OKC Energy scores more
24%

Sacramento Republic at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sacramento Republic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sacramento Republic 1 – 1 OKC Energy

Sacramento Republic and OKC Energy drew 1-1 in USL Championship on July 22, 2018.

The match was played at Papa Murphy’s Park (Sacramento, California).