Sacramento Republic 0–1 Miami FC: Result & Stats

Sacramento Republic

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Miami FC

10/26/2025

USL Championship · Round 37Heart Health Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Sacramento Republic52%

×Draw25%

Miami FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sacramento RepublicExpected goals in this matchMiami FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.00

Sacramento Republic

1.61

Miami FC

1.00

Sacramento Republic creates 61% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 100 away

1.61

creates per match

1.07

0.93

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Sacramento Republic

1.61

Miami FC

1.07

allows per match

Sacramento Republic

0.93

Miami FC

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sacramento Republic+0.00on par

Miami FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacramento Republic ↓

Miami FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sacramento Republic or draw

76%

Sacramento Republic or Miami FC

75%

Draw or Miami FC

48%

Winning margin

Sacramento Republic wins by 2+

27%

Miami FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sacramento Republic 1+ goals

80%

Sacramento Republic 2+ goals

48%

Sacramento Republic 3+ goals

22%

Miami FC 1+ goals

63%

Miami FC 2+ goals

26%

Miami FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sacramento Republic (draw refunded)

69%

Miami FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacramento Republic at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.93 · 139 matches

Miami FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.61 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacramento Republic attack 1.61 + Miami FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.61

Miami FC attack 1.07 + Sacramento Republic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sacramento Republic scores more

52%

level

25%

Miami FC scores more

24%

Sacramento Republic at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sacramento Republic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff