Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights — USL Championship 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 131+ matches
Sacramento Republic57%
Las Vegas Lights21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sacramento Republic creates 81% more chances
Season form · 134 home / 131 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sacramento Republic ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sacramento Republic at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.94 · 134 matches
Las Vegas Lights away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.08 · 131 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sacramento Republic attack 1.63 + Las Vegas Lights defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.85
Las Vegas Lights attack 1.11 + Sacramento Republic defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Sacramento Republic at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Sacramento Republic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Nashville
Indy Eleven
Louisville City
Tampa Bay Rowdies
New York RB II
North Carolina
Ottawa Fury
Charleston Battery
Birmingham Legion
Saint Louis
Loudoun United
Charlotte Independence
Atlanta United II
Memphis 901
Bethlehem Steel
Hartford Athletic
Swope Park Rangers
Phoenix Rising
Reno 1868
Fresno FC
Real Monarchs
Orange County SC
El Paso LocomotiveSacramento Republic
Austin Bold
LA Galaxy II
New Mexico United
San Antonio
Rio Grande ValleyLas Vegas Lights
Portland Timbers II
OKC Energy
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tacoma Defiance
Colorado SpringsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sacramento Republic host Las Vegas Lights on Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 02:00. The match is part of the USL Championship 2026/2027 season.
USL Championship: Sacramento Republic 5–0 Las Vegas Lights
Sacramento Republic beat Las Vegas Lights 5-0 in USL Championship on May 18, 2025.
Goals: J. Herrera (30'), J. Gurr (36'), L. Jamieson (44'), N. Ross (66' pen), T. Amann (86').
The match was played at Heart Health Park.