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Sacramento Republic vs Fresno FC — USL Championship 2018

Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fresno FC
Fresno FC
7/4/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 31Papa Murphy’s Park (Sacramento, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sacramento Republic47%
×Draw26%
Fresno FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sacramento Republic
1.48
Fresno FC
1.04

Sacramento Republic creates 42% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sacramento Republic
1.61
Fresno FC
1.15

allows per match

Sacramento Republic
0.93
Fresno FC
1.35

finishing

Sacramento Republic+0.00on par
Fresno FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacramento Republic ↓

Fresno FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sacramento Republic or draw
73%
Sacramento Republic or Fresno FC
74%
Draw or Fresno FC
53%

Winning margin

Sacramento Republic wins by 2+
24%
Fresno FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sacramento Republic 1+ goals
77%
Sacramento Republic 2+ goals
43%
Sacramento Republic 3+ goals
19%
Fresno FC 1+ goals
65%
Fresno FC 2+ goals
28%
Fresno FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sacramento Republic (draw refunded)
64%
Fresno FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacramento Republic at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.93 · 139 matches

Fresno FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacramento Republic attack 1.61 + Fresno FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Fresno FC attack 1.15 + Sacramento Republic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sacramento Republic scores more
47%
level
26%
Fresno FC scores more
27%

Sacramento Republic at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sacramento Republic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sacramento Republic vs Fresno FC

Fresno FC beat Sacramento Republic 1-0 in USL Championship on July 4, 2019.

The match was played at Papa Murphy’s Park (Sacramento, California).