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Sacramento Republic vs Austin Bold — USL Championship 2018

Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Austin Bold
Austin Bold
4/7/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 9Papa Murphy’s Park (Sacramento, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sacramento Republic53%
×Draw24%
Austin Bold23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sacramento Republic
1.70
Austin Bold
1.02

Sacramento Republic creates 67% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 41 away

creates per match

Sacramento Republic
1.61
Austin Bold
1.10

allows per match

Sacramento Republic
0.93
Austin Bold
1.78

finishing

Sacramento Republic+0.00on par
Austin Bold+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacramento Republic ↓

Austin Bold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sacramento Republic or draw
77%
Sacramento Republic or Austin Bold
76%
Draw or Austin Bold
47%

Winning margin

Sacramento Republic wins by 2+
29%
Austin Bold wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sacramento Republic 1+ goals
82%
Sacramento Republic 2+ goals
51%
Sacramento Republic 3+ goals
24%
Austin Bold 1+ goals
64%
Austin Bold 2+ goals
27%
Austin Bold 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sacramento Republic (draw refunded)
70%
Austin Bold (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacramento Republic at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.93 · 139 matches

Austin Bold away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.78 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacramento Republic attack 1.61 + Austin Bold defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.70

Austin Bold attack 1.10 + Sacramento Republic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sacramento Republic scores more
53%
level
24%
Austin Bold scores more
23%

Sacramento Republic at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sacramento Republic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Sacramento Republic 1–0 Austin Bold

Sacramento Republic beat Austin Bold 1-0 in USL Championship on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Papa Murphy’s Park (Sacramento, California).