Sacavenense 7–0 Rabo Peixe: Result & Stats

Sacavenense

7 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rabo Peixe

9/7/2025

Taça de Portugal · 1/128-finalsComplexo Desportivo Elias Pereira Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sacavenense70%

×Draw16%

Rabo Peixe14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SacavenenseExpected goals in this matchRabo Peixe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

1.15

Sacavenense

2.70

Rabo Peixe

1.15

Sacavenense creates 135% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.14

creates per match

0.00

2.29

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Sacavenense

2.14

Rabo Peixe

0.00

allows per match

Sacavenense

2.29

Rabo Peixe

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sacavenense+0.00on par

Rabo Peixe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacavenense ↓

Rabo Peixe →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Sacavenense or draw

86%

Sacavenense or Rabo Peixe

84%

Draw or Rabo Peixe

30%

Winning margin

Sacavenense wins by 2+

48%

Rabo Peixe wins by 2+

Team goals

Sacavenense 1+ goals

93%

Sacavenense 2+ goals

75%

Sacavenense 3+ goals

50%

Rabo Peixe 1+ goals

68%

Rabo Peixe 2+ goals

32%

Rabo Peixe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sacavenense (draw refunded)

83%

Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sacavenense at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Rabo Peixe away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sacavenense attack 2.14 + Rabo Peixe defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.70

Rabo Peixe attack 0.00 + Sacavenense defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sacavenense scores more

70%

level

16%

Rabo Peixe scores more

14%

Sacavenense at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sacavenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff