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Sacachispas vs Liniers — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Sacachispas
Sacachispas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Liniers
Liniers
2/16/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 3Estadio Beto Larrosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Sacachispas39%
×Draw31%
Liniers30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sacachispas
1.04
Liniers
0.88

Sacachispas creates 18% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 54 away

creates per match

Sacachispas
0.99
Liniers
0.76

allows per match

Sacachispas
0.99
Liniers
1.09

finishing

Sacachispas+0.00on par
Liniers+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacachispas ↓

Liniers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sacachispas or draw
70%
Sacachispas or Liniers
69%
Draw or Liniers
61%

Winning margin

Sacachispas wins by 2+
15%
Liniers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sacachispas 1+ goals
65%
Sacachispas 2+ goals
28%
Sacachispas 3+ goals
9%
Liniers 1+ goals
59%
Liniers 2+ goals
22%
Liniers 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sacachispas (draw refunded)
56%
Liniers (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacachispas at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Liniers away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacachispas attack 0.99 + Liniers defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Liniers attack 0.76 + Sacachispas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sacachispas scores more
39%
level
31%
Liniers scores more
30%

Sacachispas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sacachispas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Sacachispas 1–0 Liniers

Sacachispas beat Liniers 1-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Beto Larrosa in Villa Soldati, Provincia de Buenos Aires.