Sacachispas 1–0 Flandria: Result & Stats

Sacachispas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Flandria

3/9/2024

Primera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 7Estadio Beto Larrosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Sacachispas35%

×Draw32%

Flandria33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SacachispasExpected goals in this matchFlandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.92

Sacachispas

0.97

Flandria

0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 104 away

0.99

creates per match

0.84

0.99

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Sacachispas

0.99

Flandria

0.84

allows per match

Sacachispas

0.99

Flandria

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sacachispas+0.00on par

Flandria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacachispas ↓

Flandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Sacachispas or draw

67%

Sacachispas or Flandria

68%

Draw or Flandria

65%

Winning margin

Sacachispas wins by 2+

13%

Flandria wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sacachispas 1+ goals

62%

Sacachispas 2+ goals

25%

Sacachispas 3+ goals

7%

Flandria 1+ goals

60%

Flandria 2+ goals

23%

Flandria 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sacachispas (draw refunded)

52%

Flandria (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacachispas at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Flandria away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacachispas attack 0.99 + Flandria defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Flandria attack 0.84 + Sacachispas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Sacachispas scores more

35%

level

32%

Flandria scores more

33%

Sacachispas at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Sacachispas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff