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Sacachispas vs Central Cordoba — Primera C 2026

Sacachispas
Sacachispas
FT
1 – 2
Central Cordoba
Central Cordoba
10/10/2014Primera CPrimera C · Round 12Estadio Beto Larrosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sacachispas38%
×Draw29%
Central Cordoba32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sacachispas
1.15
Central Cordoba
1.03

Sacachispas creates 12% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 148 away

creates per match

Sacachispas
1.26
Central Cordoba
0.92

allows per match

Sacachispas
1.14
Central Cordoba
1.04

finishing

Sacachispas+0.00on par
Central Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacachispas ↓

Central Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sacachispas or draw
68%
Sacachispas or Central Cordoba
71%
Draw or Central Cordoba
62%

Winning margin

Sacachispas wins by 2+
16%
Central Cordoba wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sacachispas 1+ goals
68%
Sacachispas 2+ goals
32%
Sacachispas 3+ goals
11%
Central Cordoba 1+ goals
64%
Central Cordoba 2+ goals
28%
Central Cordoba 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sacachispas (draw refunded)
54%
Central Cordoba (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacachispas at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

Central Cordoba away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.04 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacachispas attack 1.26 + Central Cordoba defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Central Cordoba attack 0.92 + Sacachispas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sacachispas scores more
38%
level
29%
Central Cordoba scores more
32%

Sacachispas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sacachispas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sacachispas vs Central Cordoba

Central Cordoba beat Sacachispas 2-1 in Primera C on October 10, 2014.

The match was played at Estadio Beto Larrosa in Villa Soldati, Provincia de Buenos Aires.