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Sacachispas vs Antigua GFC — Liga Nacional 2019

Sacachispas
Sacachispas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC
12/28/2020Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 16Estadio Las Victorias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sacachispas36%
×Draw26%
Antigua GFC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sacachispas
1.32
Antigua GFC
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 156 away

creates per match

Sacachispas
1.29
Antigua GFC
1.11

allows per match

Sacachispas
1.59
Antigua GFC
1.35

finishing

Sacachispas+0.00on par
Antigua GFC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacachispas ↓

Antigua GFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sacachispas or draw
62%
Sacachispas or Antigua GFC
74%
Draw or Antigua GFC
64%

Winning margin

Sacachispas wins by 2+
16%
Antigua GFC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sacachispas 1+ goals
73%
Sacachispas 2+ goals
38%
Sacachispas 3+ goals
15%
Antigua GFC 1+ goals
74%
Antigua GFC 2+ goals
39%
Antigua GFC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sacachispas (draw refunded)
49%
Antigua GFC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacachispas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Antigua GFC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.35 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacachispas attack 1.29 + Antigua GFC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Antigua GFC attack 1.11 + Sacachispas defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sacachispas scores more
36%
level
26%
Antigua GFC scores more
38%

Antigua GFC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Antigua GFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Sacachispas 1–1 Antigua GFC

Sacachispas and Antigua GFC drew 1-1 in Liga Nacional on December 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Las Victorias in Chiquimula.