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Sacachispas vs Achuapa — Liga Nacional 2019

Sacachispas
Sacachispas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Achuapa
Achuapa
2/20/2021Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 1Estadio Las Victorias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sacachispas46%
×Draw25%
Achuapa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sacachispas
1.52
Achuapa
1.15

Sacachispas creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 122 away

creates per match

Sacachispas
1.29
Achuapa
0.70

allows per match

Sacachispas
1.59
Achuapa
1.75

finishing

Sacachispas+0.00on par
Achuapa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacachispas ↓

Achuapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sacachispas or draw
71%
Sacachispas or Achuapa
75%
Draw or Achuapa
54%

Winning margin

Sacachispas wins by 2+
23%
Achuapa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sacachispas 1+ goals
78%
Sacachispas 2+ goals
45%
Sacachispas 3+ goals
20%
Achuapa 1+ goals
68%
Achuapa 2+ goals
32%
Achuapa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sacachispas (draw refunded)
61%
Achuapa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacachispas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Achuapa away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.75 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacachispas attack 1.29 + Achuapa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Achuapa attack 0.70 + Sacachispas defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sacachispas scores more
46%
level
25%
Achuapa scores more
29%

Sacachispas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sacachispas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sacachispas vs Achuapa

Sacachispas beat Achuapa 1-0 in Liga Nacional on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Las Victorias in Chiquimula.