Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Saburtalo vs Chikhura Sachkhere — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Saburtalo
Saburtalo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
4/13/2019Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 8Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni (Tbilisi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Saburtalo54%
×Draw25%
Chikhura Sachkhere21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saburtalo
1.62
Chikhura Sachkhere
0.92

Saburtalo creates 76% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 28 away

creates per match

Saburtalo
1.67
Chikhura Sachkhere
0.93

allows per match

Saburtalo
0.91
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.57

finishing

Saburtalo+0.00on par
Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saburtalo ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Saburtalo or draw
79%
Saburtalo or Chikhura Sachkhere
75%
Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere
46%

Winning margin

Saburtalo wins by 2+
29%
Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Saburtalo 1+ goals
80%
Saburtalo 2+ goals
48%
Saburtalo 3+ goals
22%
Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
60%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
23%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Saburtalo (draw refunded)
72%
Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saburtalo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.91 · 127 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saburtalo attack 1.67 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.93 + Saburtalo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Saburtalo scores more
54%
level
25%
Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
21%

Saburtalo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Saburtalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saburtalo vs Chikhura Sachkhere

Chikhura Sachkhere beat Saburtalo 3-2 in Erovnuli Liga on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni (Tbilisi).