Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chikhura Sachkhere vs Saburtalo — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
11/24/2019Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 35Tsentraluri Stadioni (Ivantsminda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere33%
×Draw24%
Saburtalo42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.38
Saburtalo
1.58

Saburtalo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 126 away

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.43
Saburtalo
1.63

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.54
Saburtalo
1.33

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par
Saburtalo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Saburtalo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw
58%
Chikhura Sachkhere or Saburtalo
76%
Draw or Saburtalo
67%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
15%
Saburtalo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
75%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
40%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
16%
Saburtalo 1+ goals
79%
Saburtalo 2+ goals
47%
Saburtalo 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
44%
Saburtalo (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Saburtalo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 1.43 + Saburtalo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Saburtalo attack 1.63 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
33%
level
24%
Saburtalo scores more
42%

Saburtalo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Saburtalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Chikhura Sachkhere 1–3 Saburtalo

Saburtalo beat Chikhura Sachkhere 3-1 in Erovnuli Liga on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni (Ivantsminda).