Saburtalo II 0–0 Sioni: Result & Stats

Saburtalo II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sioni

11/7/2025

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 32Stadioni Bendela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Saburtalo II39%

×Draw28%

Sioni33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saburtalo IIExpected goals in this matchSioni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.12

Saburtalo II

1.25

Sioni

1.12

Saburtalo II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 89 away

1.15

creates per match

1.44

0.80

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Saburtalo II

1.15

Sioni

1.44

allows per match

Saburtalo II

0.80

Sioni

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saburtalo II+0.00on par

Sioni+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saburtalo II ↓

Sioni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Saburtalo II or draw

67%

Saburtalo II or Sioni

72%

Draw or Sioni

61%

Winning margin

Saburtalo II wins by 2+

17%

Sioni wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Saburtalo II 1+ goals

71%

Saburtalo II 2+ goals

36%

Saburtalo II 3+ goals

13%

Sioni 1+ goals

67%

Sioni 2+ goals

31%

Sioni 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Saburtalo II (draw refunded)

54%

Sioni (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saburtalo II at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Sioni away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.35 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saburtalo II attack 1.15 + Sioni defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sioni attack 1.44 + Saburtalo II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Saburtalo II scores more

39%

level

28%

Sioni scores more

33%

Saburtalo II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Saburtalo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

G. Sajaia

59'

D. Sichinava← T. Makatsaria

62'

D. Gogilashvili← S. Geguchadze

66'

I. Javakhishvili← L. Chaganava

72'

Z. Tsamalashvili← D. Kvartskhava

72'

C. Labadze← G. Sajaia

75'

Z. Eradze

78'

G. Gogsadze← S. Kverenchkhiladze

78'

G. Kukalia← T. Babunadze

83'

G. Kobuladze

86'

L. Gegeshidze← G. Gaprindashvili

86'

K. Beselia← G. Ubilava

90'

G. Gogsadze

Saburtalo

Sioni

32

24

15

34

16

▼

30

23

6

2

▼

Gaprindas

29

▼

Makatsari

7

▼

16

41

3

26

5

18

▼

Sajaia

20

Tsamalash

36

▼

Kverenchk

17

▼

Geguchadz

19

▼

Kvartskha

35

▼

Babunadze

Manager: G. Nergadze

62'▲D. Gogilashvili←▼S. Geguchadze

72'▲Z. Tsamalashvili←▼D. Kvartskhava

72'▲C. Labadze←▼G. Sajaia

78'▲G. Gogsadze←▼S. Kverenchkhiladze

78'▲G. Kukalia←▼T. Babunadze

Saburtalo II substitutes

12Bochorishvili2Gogsadze7Gogilashvili8Chachua15Kukalia27Chanturia30Tsamalashvili39Menagarishvili40Labadze

Manager: V. Kilasonia

59'▲D. Sichinava←▼T. Makatsaria

66'▲I. Javakhishvili←▼L. Chaganava

86'▲L. Gegeshidze←▼G. Gaprindashvili

86'▲K. Beselia←▼G. Ubilava

Sioni substitutes

12Isiani10Sichinava13Javakhishvili19Gegeshidze25Kilasonia27Kharaishvilli36Beselia

Match Recap: Saburtalo II vs Sioni

Saburtalo II and Sioni drew 0-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadioni Bendela in Tbilisi.

Saburtalo II vs Sioni — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Saburtalo II vs Sioni