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Saburtalo II vs Shukura — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Saburtalo II
Saburtalo II
FT
0 – 0
Shukura
Shukura
8/23/2020David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Saburtalo II23%
×Draw26%
Shukura51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saburtalo II
0.92
Shukura
1.50

Shukura creates 63% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Saburtalo II
1.33
Shukura
1.00

allows per match

Saburtalo II
2.00
Shukura
0.50

finishing

Saburtalo II+0.00on par
Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saburtalo II ↓

Shukura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Saburtalo II or draw
49%
Saburtalo II or Shukura
74%
Draw or Shukura
77%

Winning margin

Saburtalo II wins by 2+
8%
Shukura wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Saburtalo II 1+ goals
60%
Saburtalo II 2+ goals
23%
Saburtalo II 3+ goals
7%
Shukura 1+ goals
78%
Shukura 2+ goals
44%
Shukura 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Saburtalo II (draw refunded)
31%
Shukura (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saburtalo II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Shukura away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saburtalo II attack 1.33 + Shukura defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Shukura attack 1.00 + Saburtalo II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Saburtalo II scores more
23%
level
26%
Shukura scores more
51%

Shukura at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saburtalo II vs Shukura

Saburtalo II and Shukura drew 0-0 in David Kipiani Cup on August 23, 2020.