Sable 1–0 Atlantic: Result & Stats | Elite Two

Sable

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlantic

3/1/2026

Elite Two · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sable53%

×Draw25%

Atlantic23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SableExpected goals in this matchAtlantic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.00

Sable

1.65

Atlantic

1.00

Sable creates 65% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

2.10

creates per match

1.10

0.90

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sable

2.10

Atlantic

1.10

allows per match

Sable

0.90

Atlantic

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sable+0.00on par

Atlantic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sable ↓

Atlantic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sable or draw

77%

Sable or Atlantic

75%

Draw or Atlantic

47%

Winning margin

Sable wins by 2+

28%

Atlantic wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sable 1+ goals

81%

Sable 2+ goals

49%

Sable 3+ goals

23%

Atlantic 1+ goals

63%

Atlantic 2+ goals

26%

Atlantic 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sable (draw refunded)

70%

Atlantic (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sable at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Atlantic away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sable attack 2.10 + Atlantic defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.65

Atlantic attack 1.10 + Sable defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sable scores more

53%

level

25%

Atlantic scores more

23%

Sable at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sable will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff