Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sable vs APEJES Academy — Elite Two 2020

Sable
Sable
FT
1 – 0
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
4/4/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sable43%
×Draw24%
APEJES Academy32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sable
1.60
APEJES Academy
1.35

Sable creates 19% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sable
2.10
APEJES Academy
1.80

allows per match

Sable
0.90
APEJES Academy
1.10

finishing

Sable+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sable ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sable or draw
68%
Sable or APEJES Academy
76%
Draw or APEJES Academy
57%

Winning margin

Sable wins by 2+
22%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sable 1+ goals
80%
Sable 2+ goals
47%
Sable 3+ goals
22%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
74%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
39%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sable (draw refunded)
57%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sable at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sable attack 2.10 + APEJES Academy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.60

APEJES Academy attack 1.80 + Sable defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sable scores more
43%
level
24%
APEJES Academy scores more
32%

Sable at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sable will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sable vs APEJES Academy

Sable beat APEJES Academy 1-0 in Elite Two on April 4, 2026.