Sable Farming 0–2 MAFCO: Result & Stats

Sable Farming

FT

0 – 2

MAFCO

7/9/2022

Super League · Round 12Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sable Farming36%

×Draw28%

MAFCO36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sable FarmingExpected goals in this matchMAFCO

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

Sable Farming

1.16

MAFCO

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 74 away

1.00

creates per match

0.91

1.40

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sable Farming

1.00

MAFCO

0.91

allows per match

Sable Farming

1.40

MAFCO

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sable Farming+0.00on par

MAFCO+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sable Farming ↓

MAFCO →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sable Farming or draw

64%

Sable Farming or MAFCO

72%

Draw or MAFCO

64%

Winning margin

Sable Farming wins by 2+

15%

MAFCO wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sable Farming 1+ goals

69%

Sable Farming 2+ goals

32%

Sable Farming 3+ goals

11%

MAFCO 1+ goals

69%

MAFCO 2+ goals

32%

MAFCO 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sable Farming (draw refunded)

50%

MAFCO (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sable Farming at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

MAFCO away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sable Farming attack 1.00 + MAFCO defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

MAFCO attack 0.91 + Sable Farming defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sable Farming scores more

36%

level

28%

MAFCO scores more

36%

Sable Farming at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sable Farming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff