Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sable Farming vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

Sable Farming
Sable Farming
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
10/2/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sable Farming31%
×Draw29%
Kamuzu Barracks40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sable Farming
1.02
Kamuzu Barracks
1.19

Kamuzu Barracks creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 76 away

creates per match

Sable Farming
1.00
Kamuzu Barracks
0.99

allows per match

Sable Farming
1.40
Kamuzu Barracks
1.04

finishing

Sable Farming+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sable Farming ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sable Farming or draw
60%
Sable Farming or Kamuzu Barracks
71%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
69%

Winning margin

Sable Farming wins by 2+
12%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sable Farming 1+ goals
64%
Sable Farming 2+ goals
27%
Sable Farming 3+ goals
8%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
70%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
33%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sable Farming (draw refunded)
44%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sable Farming at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.04 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sable Farming attack 1.00 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Kamuzu Barracks attack 0.99 + Sable Farming defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sable Farming scores more
31%
level
29%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
40%

Kamuzu Barracks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sable Farming vs Kamuzu Barracks

Kamuzu Barracks beat Sable Farming 2-0 in Super League on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Mpira Stadium in Blantyre.