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Sable Farming vs Ekwendeni Hammers — Super League 2026

Sable Farming
Sable Farming
FT
1 – 1
Ekwendeni Hammers
Ekwendeni Hammers
4/3/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sable Farming40%
×Draw27%
Ekwendeni Hammers32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sable Farming
1.29
Ekwendeni Hammers
1.12

Sable Farming creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sable Farming
1.00
Ekwendeni Hammers
0.84

allows per match

Sable Farming
1.40
Ekwendeni Hammers
1.57

finishing

Sable Farming+0.00on par
Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sable Farming ↓

Ekwendeni Hammers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sable Farming or draw
68%
Sable Farming or Ekwendeni Hammers
73%
Draw or Ekwendeni Hammers
60%

Winning margin

Sable Farming wins by 2+
18%
Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sable Farming 1+ goals
72%
Sable Farming 2+ goals
37%
Sable Farming 3+ goals
14%
Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals
67%
Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals
31%
Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sable Farming (draw refunded)
56%
Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sable Farming at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Ekwendeni Hammers away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sable Farming attack 1.00 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 0.84 + Sable Farming defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sable Farming scores more
40%
level
27%
Ekwendeni Hammers scores more
32%

Sable Farming at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sable Farming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Sable Farming 1–1 Ekwendeni Hammers

Sable Farming and Ekwendeni Hammers drew 1-1 in Super League on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.