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Sabiñánigo vs Valdefierro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Sabiñánigo
Sabiñánigo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Valdefierro
Valdefierro
5/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Joaquín Ascaso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sabiñánigo47%
×Draw26%
Valdefierro27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabiñánigo
1.52
Valdefierro
1.10

Sabiñánigo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Sabiñánigo
0.88
Valdefierro
0.45

allows per match

Sabiñánigo
1.75
Valdefierro
2.16

finishing

Sabiñánigo+0.00on par
Valdefierro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabiñánigo ↓

Valdefierro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sabiñánigo or draw
73%
Sabiñánigo or Valdefierro
74%
Draw or Valdefierro
53%

Winning margin

Sabiñánigo wins by 2+
24%
Valdefierro wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sabiñánigo 1+ goals
78%
Sabiñánigo 2+ goals
45%
Sabiñánigo 3+ goals
20%
Valdefierro 1+ goals
67%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
30%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sabiñánigo (draw refunded)
63%
Valdefierro (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabiñánigo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

Valdefierro away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabiñánigo attack 0.88 + Valdefierro defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.52

Valdefierro attack 0.45 + Sabiñánigo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sabiñánigo scores more
47%
level
26%
Valdefierro scores more
27%

Sabiñánigo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sabiñánigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabiñánigo vs Valdefierro

Sabiñánigo and Valdefierro drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Joaquín Ascaso in Sabiñánigo.