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Sabiñánigo vs Utebo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Sabiñánigo
Sabiñánigo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Utebo
Utebo
3/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 22Estadio Joaquín Ascaso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sabiñánigo27%
×Draw27%
Utebo47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabiñánigo
1.00
Utebo
1.42

Utebo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sabiñánigo
0.88
Utebo
1.09

allows per match

Sabiñánigo
1.75
Utebo
1.11

finishing

Sabiñánigo+0.00on par
Utebo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabiñánigo ↓

Utebo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sabiñánigo or draw
53%
Sabiñánigo or Utebo
73%
Draw or Utebo
73%

Winning margin

Sabiñánigo wins by 2+
10%
Utebo wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sabiñánigo 1+ goals
63%
Sabiñánigo 2+ goals
26%
Sabiñánigo 3+ goals
8%
Utebo 1+ goals
76%
Utebo 2+ goals
41%
Utebo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sabiñánigo (draw refunded)
36%
Utebo (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabiñánigo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

Utebo away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabiñánigo attack 0.88 + Utebo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Utebo attack 1.09 + Sabiñánigo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sabiñánigo scores more
27%
level
27%
Utebo scores more
47%

Utebo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Utebo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabiñánigo vs Utebo

Utebo beat Sabiñánigo 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Joaquín Ascaso in Sabiñánigo.