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Sabiñánigo vs San Juan Mozarrifar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Sabiñánigo
Sabiñánigo
CANC
16:00
San Juan Mozarrifar
San Juan Mozarrifar
5/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sabiñánigo46%
×Draw26%
San Juan Mozarrifar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabiñánigo
1.48
San Juan Mozarrifar
1.10

Sabiñánigo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

creates per match

Sabiñánigo
0.88
San Juan Mozarrifar
0.46

allows per match

Sabiñánigo
1.75
San Juan Mozarrifar
2.08

finishing

Sabiñánigo+0.00on par
San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabiñánigo ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sabiñánigo or draw
72%
Sabiñánigo or San Juan Mozarrifar
74%
Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar
54%

Winning margin

Sabiñánigo wins by 2+
23%
San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sabiñánigo 1+ goals
77%
Sabiñánigo 2+ goals
43%
Sabiñánigo 3+ goals
19%
San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals
67%
San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals
30%
San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sabiñánigo (draw refunded)
62%
San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabiñánigo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabiñánigo attack 0.88 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.48

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Sabiñánigo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sabiñánigo scores more
46%
level
26%
San Juan Mozarrifar scores more
28%

Sabiñánigo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sabiñánigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sabiñánigo face San Juan Mozarrifar (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 returns with Sabiñánigo hosting San Juan Mozarrifar. Match starts May 23, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.