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Sabiñánigo vs Brea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Sabiñánigo
Sabiñánigo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Brea
Brea
12/20/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 10Estadio Joaquín Ascaso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sabiñánigo27%
×Draw28%
Brea45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabiñánigo
0.95
Brea
1.33

Brea creates 40% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 46 away

creates per match

Sabiñánigo
0.88
Brea
0.91

allows per match

Sabiñánigo
1.75
Brea
1.02

finishing

Sabiñánigo+0.00on par
Brea+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabiñánigo ↓

Brea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sabiñánigo or draw
55%
Sabiñánigo or Brea
72%
Draw or Brea
73%

Winning margin

Sabiñánigo wins by 2+
9%
Brea wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sabiñánigo 1+ goals
61%
Sabiñánigo 2+ goals
25%
Sabiñánigo 3+ goals
7%
Brea 1+ goals
74%
Brea 2+ goals
38%
Brea 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sabiñánigo (draw refunded)
37%
Brea (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabiñánigo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

Brea away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabiñánigo attack 0.88 + Brea defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Brea attack 0.91 + Sabiñánigo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sabiñánigo scores more
27%
level
28%
Brea scores more
45%

Brea at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Sabiñánigo 0–2 Brea

Brea beat Sabiñánigo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 20, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Joaquín Ascaso in Sabiñánigo.