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Sabana vs USFAS Bamako — Première Division 2019

Sabana
Sabana
FT
1 – 0
USFAS Bamako
USFAS Bamako
1/21/2020Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 15Stade Baréma Bocoum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sabana24%
×Draw28%
USFAS Bamako48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabana
0.86
USFAS Bamako
1.33

USFAS Bamako creates 55% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 93 away

creates per match

Sabana
0.67
USFAS Bamako
0.99

allows per match

Sabana
1.67
USFAS Bamako
1.05

finishing

Sabana+0.00on par
USFAS Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabana ↓

USFAS Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sabana or draw
52%
Sabana or USFAS Bamako
72%
Draw or USFAS Bamako
76%

Winning margin

Sabana wins by 2+
8%
USFAS Bamako wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sabana 1+ goals
58%
Sabana 2+ goals
21%
Sabana 3+ goals
6%
USFAS Bamako 1+ goals
74%
USFAS Bamako 2+ goals
38%
USFAS Bamako 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sabana (draw refunded)
34%
USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabana at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

USFAS Bamako away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.05 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabana attack 0.67 + USFAS Bamako defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.86

USFAS Bamako attack 0.99 + Sabana defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sabana scores more
24%
level
28%
USFAS Bamako scores more
48%

USFAS Bamako at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Sabana 1–0 USFAS Bamako

Sabana beat USFAS Bamako 1-0 in Première Division on January 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Baréma Bocoum in Mopti.