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Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK — Premyer Liqa 2019

Sabah FA
Sabah FA
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
5/9/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 34Bank Respublika Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Sabah FA52%
×Draw25%
Şamaxı FK23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabah FA
1.59
Şamaxı FK
0.96

Sabah FA creates 66% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 90 away

creates per match

Sabah FA
1.61
Şamaxı FK
0.94

allows per match

Sabah FA
0.99
Şamaxı FK
1.57

finishing

Sabah FA+0.00on par
Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabah FA ↓

Şamaxı FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sabah FA or draw
77%
Sabah FA or Şamaxı FK
75%
Draw or Şamaxı FK
48%

Winning margin

Sabah FA wins by 2+
27%
Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sabah FA 1+ goals
80%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
47%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
21%
Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
62%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
25%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sabah FA (draw refunded)
69%
Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabah FA at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.99 · 108 matches

Şamaxı FK away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabah FA attack 1.61 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.59

Şamaxı FK attack 0.94 + Sabah FA defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sabah FA scores more
52%
level
25%
Şamaxı FK scores more
23%

Sabah FA at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK

Sabah FA beat Şamaxı FK 3-1 in Premyer Liqa on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Bank Respublika Arena in Masazir.