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Sabah FA vs Hougang United — AFC Cup 2018

Sabah FA
Sabah FA
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hougang United
Hougang United
9/21/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Likas Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sabah FA60%
×Draw18%
Hougang United22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabah FA
2.62
Hougang United
1.55

Sabah FA creates 69% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sabah FA
2.67
Hougang United
1.43

allows per match

Sabah FA
1.67
Hougang United
2.57

finishing

Sabah FA+0.00on par
Hougang United+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabah FA ↓

Hougang United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Sabah FA or draw
78%
Sabah FA or Hougang United
82%
Draw or Hougang United
40%

Winning margin

Sabah FA wins by 2+
39%
Hougang United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sabah FA 1+ goals
93%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
73%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
48%
Hougang United 1+ goals
79%
Hougang United 2+ goals
46%
Hougang United 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sabah FA (draw refunded)
73%
Hougang United (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabah FA at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Hougang United away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabah FA attack 2.67 + Hougang United defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.62

Hougang United attack 1.43 + Sabah FA defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sabah FA scores more
60%
level
18%
Hougang United scores more
22%

Sabah FA at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabah FA vs Hougang United

Sabah FA beat Hougang United 3-1 in AFC Cup on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Likas Stadium in Kota Kinabalu.