Sabadell 2–3 San Fernando CD: Result & Stats

Sabadell

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

San Fernando CD

Jacobo González 29' (pen)

Crespí 2' (OG)

L. Cvetićanin 90+5'

Juanmi Callejón 87'

Francis Ferrón 71' (pen)

11/14/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sabadell47%

×Draw28%

San Fernando CD25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SabadellExpected goals in this matchSan Fernando CD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.89

Sabadell

1.35

San Fernando CD

0.89

Sabadell creates 52% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.21

creates per match

1.03

0.74

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sabadell

1.21

San Fernando CD

1.03

allows per match

Sabadell

0.74

San Fernando CD

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par

San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

San Fernando CD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw

75%

Sabadell or San Fernando CD

72%

Draw or San Fernando CD

53%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+

23%

San Fernando CD wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals

74%

Sabadell 2+ goals

39%

Sabadell 3+ goals

15%

San Fernando CD 1+ goals

59%

San Fernando CD 2+ goals

22%

San Fernando CD 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)

66%

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.21 + San Fernando CD defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

San Fernando CD attack 1.03 + Sabadell defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sabadell scores more

47%

level

28%

San Fernando CD scores more

25%

Sabadell at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

CrespíOwn goal

14'

C. Morgado

28'

29'

Jacobo GonzálezPenalty

37'

J. Biabiany

38'

I. Indias

44'

M. Crespi

62'

Francis Ferrón← Crespí

62'

Juan Rodríguez← Gerard Vergé

65'

Néstor Querol← M. Ezzarfani

65'

Óscar Rubio← Joseba Muguruza

71'

Francis FerrónPenalty

75'

A. Dionkou← Luis Ruiz

77'

Guillem Molina← Xavi Boniquet

78'

D. Caballo

78'

S. Aguza

82'

E. Bernard

84'

L. Cvetićanin← Sergio Cortés

87'

Juanmi Callejón

88'

Kaxe← Iago Indias

88'

Tony Gabarre← Aarón Rey

90+1'

J. Gonzalez

90+6'

90+5'

L. Cvetićanin

Sabadell

San

Perales

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Antonio Hidalgo

65'▲Néstor Querol←▼M. Ezzarfani

65'▲Óscar Rubio←▼Joseba Muguruza

77'▲Guillem Molina←▼Xavi Boniquet

88'▲Kaxe←▼Iago Indias

88'▲Tony Gabarre←▼Aarón Rey

Sabadell substitutes

QuerolRubioMolinaKaxeGabarrePlanasSánchezLealRoyoBelmonteQuintero

Manager: Nacho Castro

62'▲Francis Ferrón←▼Crespí

62'▲Juan Rodríguez←▼Gerard Vergé

75'▲A. Dionkou←▼Luis Ruiz

84'▲L. Cvetićanin←▼Sergio Cortés

San Fernando CD substitutes

FerrónRodríguezDionkouCvetićaninPasseroRamosAkpakpanFernándezRamos

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sabadell 2–3 San Fernando CD

San Fernando CD beat Sabadell 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 14, 2021.

Goals: Crespí (2' o.g.), Jacobo González (29' pen), Francis Ferrón (71' pen), Juanmi Callejón (87'), L. Cvetićanin (90+5').

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.

Sabadell vs San Fernando CD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sabadell 2–3 San Fernando CD