Sabadell 1–0 Real Unión: Result & Stats

Sabadell

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Unión

2/24/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sabadell47%

×Draw28%

Real Unión25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SabadellExpected goals in this matchReal Unión

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.91

Sabadell

1.35

Real Unión

0.91

Sabadell creates 48% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

1.05

creates per match

0.98

0.84

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Sabadell

1.05

Real Unión

0.98

allows per match

Sabadell

0.84

Real Unión

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par

Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Real Unión →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw

75%

Sabadell or Real Unión

72%

Draw or Real Unión

53%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+

22%

Real Unión wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals

74%

Sabadell 2+ goals

39%

Sabadell 3+ goals

15%

Real Unión 1+ goals

60%

Real Unión 2+ goals

23%

Real Unión 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)

65%

Real Unión (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.05 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Sabadell defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sabadell scores more

47%

level

28%

Real Unión scores more

25%

Sabadell at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff