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Sabadell vs Lugo — Segunda División 2018

Sabadell
Sabadell
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lugo
Lugo
1/11/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 21Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sabadell43%
×Draw29%
Lugo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabadell
1.21
Lugo
0.92

Sabadell creates 32% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 105 away

creates per match

Sabadell
0.95
Lugo
0.83

allows per match

Sabadell
1.00
Lugo
1.46

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par
Lugo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Lugo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw
72%
Sabadell or Lugo
71%
Draw or Lugo
57%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+
19%
Lugo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals
70%
Sabadell 2+ goals
34%
Sabadell 3+ goals
12%
Lugo 1+ goals
60%
Lugo 2+ goals
23%
Lugo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)
60%
Lugo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Lugo away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.46 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 0.95 + Lugo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lugo attack 0.83 + Sabadell defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sabadell scores more
43%
level
29%
Lugo scores more
28%

Sabadell at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Sabadell 1–1 Lugo

Sabadell and Lugo drew 1-1 in Segunda División on January 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.