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Sabadell vs La Nucía — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sabadell
Sabadell
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Nucía
La Nucía
5/14/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 36Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sabadell48%
×Draw28%
La Nucía24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabadell
1.37
La Nucía
0.87

Sabadell creates 57% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sabadell
1.21
La Nucía
1.00

allows per match

Sabadell
0.74
La Nucía
1.53

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par
La Nucía+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

La Nucía →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw
76%
Sabadell or La Nucía
72%
Draw or La Nucía
52%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+
23%
La Nucía wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals
75%
Sabadell 2+ goals
40%
Sabadell 3+ goals
16%
La Nucía 1+ goals
58%
La Nucía 2+ goals
22%
La Nucía 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)
67%
La Nucía (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

La Nucía away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.21 + La Nucía defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.37

La Nucía attack 1.00 + Sabadell defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sabadell scores more
48%
level
28%
La Nucía scores more
24%

Sabadell at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sabadell 2–0 La Nucía

Sabadell beat La Nucía 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.