Sabadell 2–2 Juventud Torremolinos: Result & Stats

Sabadell

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Juventud Torremolinos

G. Fornes 61'

Rodri 9'

Pito Camacho 68', 43'

2/1/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sabadell49%

×Draw27%

Juventud Torremolinos24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SabadellExpected goals in this matchJuventud Torremolinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.90

Sabadell

1.40

Juventud Torremolinos

0.90

Sabadell creates 56% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.21

creates per match

1.05

0.74

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sabadell

1.21

Juventud Torremolinos

1.05

allows per match

Sabadell

0.74

Juventud Torremolinos

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw

76%

Sabadell or Juventud Torremolinos

73%

Draw or Juventud Torremolinos

51%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+

24%

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals

75%

Sabadell 2+ goals

41%

Sabadell 3+ goals

17%

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals

59%

Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals

23%

Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)

67%

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.21 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.40

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.05 + Sabadell defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sabadell scores more

49%

level

27%

Juventud Torremolinos scores more

24%

Sabadell at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

20'

28'

40'

43'

45+6'

46'

46'

E. Aguilar Elizalde← A. Coscia

46'

J. Hernandez← Dani

61'

G. Fornes

68'

Pito Camacho

71'

A. Godoy← Rodri

71'

F. Gallego Cea← C. Penarroya

72'

76'

U. Diao← Pito Camacho

76'

I. Ribeiro← Gori

79'

M. A. Ramirez Carrasco← J. Priego

79'

R. Martinez← J. Lopez

83'

I. Ribeiro

89'

S. A. Lesedi← A. Camacho

90+5'

R. Martinez

90+7'

90+13'

C. Garcia

Sabadell

Juventud

1

Martinez

22

Roldan

5

▼

4

18

3

7

▼

Camacho

6

Climent

8

▼

Penarroya

20

▼

Gori

9

⚽2

▼

Camacho

1

Fuoli

7

▼

Ripoll

5

Bonaldo

3

⚽

Fornes

23

▼

8

20

22

19

▼

Lopez

17

▼

Coscia

9

⚽

▼

Rodri

Manager: Ferran Costa

46'▲C. Garcia←▼T. Ripoll

46'▲E. Aguilar Elizalde←▼A. Coscia

71'▲A. Godoy←▼Rodri

79'▲M. A. Ramirez Carrasco←▼J. Priego

79'▲R. Martinez←▼J. Lopez

Sabadell substitutes

25Ruiz28Ciurans4Garcia2Aleman15Cervera10Carrasco24Elizalde18Ortega16Godoy11Martinez

Manager: Antonio Calderon

46'▲J. Hernandez←▼Dani

71'▲F. Gallego Cea←▼C. Penarroya

76'▲U. Diao←▼Pito Camacho

76'▲I. Ribeiro←▼Gori

89'▲S. A. Lesedi←▼A. Camacho

Juventud Torremolinos substitutes

13Barragan15Hernandez12Perez23Lesedi31Bozada25Diao29Roldan10Cea21Christian11Ribeiro14Polo

Match Recap: Sabadell vs Juventud Torremolinos

Sabadell and Juventud Torremolinos drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 1, 2026.

Goals: Rodri (9'), Pito Camacho (43', 68'), G. Fornes (61').

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.

Sabadell vs Juventud Torremolinos — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sabadell vs Juventud Torremolinos