Sabadell 2–1 Cornellà: Result & Stats

Sabadell

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cornellà

V. Kopotun 90+1'

Marc Domènech 38'

Toni Arranz 15'

4/20/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sabadell47%

×Draw30%

Cornellà23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SabadellExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.76

Sabadell

1.23

Cornellà

0.76

Sabadell creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.05

creates per match

0.68

0.84

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Sabadell

1.05

Cornellà

0.68

allows per match

Sabadell

0.84

Cornellà

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Cornellà →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw

77%

Sabadell or Cornellà

70%

Draw or Cornellà

53%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+

21%

Cornellà wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals

71%

Sabadell 2+ goals

35%

Sabadell 3+ goals

13%

Cornellà 1+ goals

53%

Cornellà 2+ goals

18%

Cornellà 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)

67%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.05 + Cornellà defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cornellà attack 0.68 + Sabadell defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sabadell scores more

47%

level

30%

Cornellà scores more

23%

Sabadell at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Toni Arranz

38'

Marc Domènech

45'

Abde

48'

José Mas← Eudald Vergés

51'

J. Amelibia

56'

V. Kopotun← Jordi Calavera

68'

Luisao Macías← Robert Simón

68'

Marc Vilaplana← Marc Tenas

71'

Marc Marruecos← David Soto

71'

Toni Herrero← Ricard Pujol

84'

Canario← Gonpi

88'

Manel Martínez← Marcos Baselga

90+1'

V. Kopotun

Sabadell

Cornellà

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Óscar Cano

56'▲V. Kopotun←▼Jordi Calavera

71'▲Marc Marruecos←▼David Soto

71'▲Toni Herrero←▼Ricard Pujol

88'▲Manel Martínez←▼Marcos Baselga

Sabadell substitutes

KopotunMarruecosHerreroMartínezFontMorcilloGarcíaFernándezGualdaLealFernándezTou

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

48'▲José Mas←▼Eudald Vergés

68'▲Luisao Macías←▼Robert Simón

68'▲Marc Vilaplana←▼Marc Tenas

84'▲Canario←▼Gonpi

Cornellà substitutes

MasMacíasVilaplanaCanarioTejadaSomaAyalaMeikher