Sabadell 1–3 Castellón: Result & Stats

Sabadell

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Castellón

Kaxe 18'

Juanto 90+3'

Mario Barco 66'

K. Koné 25'

3/12/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sabadell43%

×Draw29%

Castellón28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SabadellExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.93

Sabadell

1.23

Castellón

0.93

Sabadell creates 32% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

1.21

creates per match

1.11

0.74

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Sabadell

1.21

Castellón

1.11

allows per match

Sabadell

0.74

Castellón

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par

Castellón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw

72%

Sabadell or Castellón

71%

Draw or Castellón

57%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+

19%

Castellón wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals

71%

Sabadell 2+ goals

35%

Sabadell 3+ goals

13%

Castellón 1+ goals

61%

Castellón 2+ goals

24%

Castellón 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)

61%

Castellón (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

Castellón away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.21 + Castellón defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Castellón attack 1.11 + Sabadell defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sabadell scores more

43%

level

29%

Castellón scores more

28%

Sabadell at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Kaxe

25'

K. Koné

54'

J. Muguruza

62'

Álex Blesa← Aarón Romero

62'

Mario Barco← David Cubillas

66'

Mario Barco

70'

Sergio Aguza← Xavi Boniquet

70'

Aarón Rey← F. García

71'

Juanto← Mario Barco

76'

V. Esquerdo

82'

Alejandro Marcos← Vicente Esquerdo

82'

Koke Sáiz← K. Koné

86'

A. Marcos

88'

Dopi← Iago Indias

90+3'

Juanto

Sabadell

Castellón

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Munitis

70'▲Sergio Aguza←▼Xavi Boniquet

70'▲Aarón Rey←▼F. García

88'▲Dopi←▼Iago Indias

Sabadell substitutes

AguzaReyDopiSánchezLealRoyoEzzarfaniMarcVargasFolchAltimiraQuintero

Manager: Sergi Escobar

62'▲Álex Blesa←▼Aarón Romero

62'▲Mario Barco←▼David Cubillas

71'▲Juanto←▼Mario Barco

82'▲Alejandro Marcos←▼Vicente Esquerdo

82'▲Koke Sáiz←▼K. Koné

Castellón substitutes

BlesaBarcoJuantoMarcosSáizKandoussiLunaMartínezMoyano

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sabadell 1–3 Castellón

Castellón beat Sabadell 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 12, 2022.

Goals: Kaxe (18'), K. Koné (25'), Mario Barco (66'), Juanto (90+3').

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.

Sabadell vs Castellón — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sabadell 1–3 Castellón