Sabadell 0–0 Alcoyano: Result & Stats

Sabadell

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alcoyano

1/22/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sabadell45%

×Draw30%

Alcoyano25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SabadellExpected goals in this matchAlcoyano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.82

Sabadell

1.21

Alcoyano

0.82

Sabadell creates 48% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

1.21

creates per match

0.91

0.74

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Sabadell

1.21

Alcoyano

0.91

allows per match

Sabadell

0.74

Alcoyano

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par

Alcoyano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Alcoyano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw

75%

Sabadell or Alcoyano

70%

Draw or Alcoyano

55%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+

20%

Alcoyano wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals

70%

Sabadell 2+ goals

34%

Sabadell 3+ goals

12%

Alcoyano 1+ goals

56%

Alcoyano 2+ goals

20%

Alcoyano 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)

64%

Alcoyano (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

Alcoyano away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.21 + Alcoyano defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Alcoyano attack 0.91 + Sabadell defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sabadell scores more

45%

level

30%

Alcoyano scores more

25%

Sabadell at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Sergi García← I. Athuman

48'

P. Carbonell

54'

P. Resta

59'

Sergi Altimira← Armando

67'

Fran Miranda← Imanol García

67'

Rubén Lobato← Pablo Carbonell

76'

A. Sala

79'

Cristian Dieste← Pau Victor

82'

R. Lobato

83'

Cristian Fernández← Sergio Moyita

Sabadell

Alcoyano

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Miki Lladó

37'▲Sergi García←▼I. Athuman

59'▲Sergi Altimira←▼Armando

79'▲Cristian Dieste←▼Pau Victor

Sabadell substitutes

GarcíaAltimiraDiesteGualdaPiñolMarcVargasVidal

Manager: Vicente Parras

67'▲Fran Miranda←▼Imanol García

67'▲Rubén Lobato←▼Pablo Carbonell

83'▲Cristian Fernández←▼Sergio Moyita

Alcoyano substitutes

MirandaLobatoFernándezArmentalSáizVallsRubioStopajnik

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sabadell 0–0 Alcoyano

Sabadell and Alcoyano drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.

Sabadell vs Alcoyano — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sabadell 0–0 Alcoyano