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Sabadell II vs San Cristóbal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Sabadell II
Sabadell II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
3/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 28Camp Municipal de Futbol del Poliesportiu Olímpia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sabadell II32%
×Draw30%
San Cristóbal38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabadell II
0.98
San Cristóbal
1.09

San Cristóbal creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

creates per match

Sabadell II
0.82
San Cristóbal
0.78

allows per match

Sabadell II
1.41
San Cristóbal
1.15

finishing

Sabadell II+0.00on par
San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell II ↓

San Cristóbal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sabadell II or draw
62%
Sabadell II or San Cristóbal
70%
Draw or San Cristóbal
68%

Winning margin

Sabadell II wins by 2+
12%
San Cristóbal wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sabadell II 1+ goals
62%
Sabadell II 2+ goals
26%
Sabadell II 3+ goals
8%
San Cristóbal 1+ goals
66%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
30%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sabadell II (draw refunded)
46%
San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell II at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell II attack 0.82 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.98

San Cristóbal attack 0.78 + Sabadell II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sabadell II scores more
32%
level
30%
San Cristóbal scores more
38%

San Cristóbal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Cristóbal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabadell II vs San Cristóbal

San Cristóbal beat Sabadell II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol del Poliesportiu Olímpia in Sabadell.