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Sabadell II vs Montañesa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Sabadell II
Sabadell II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montañesa
Montañesa
11/23/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 12Camp Municipal de Futbol del Poliesportiu Olímpia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sabadell II38%
×Draw29%
Montañesa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabadell II
1.15
Montañesa
1.04

Sabadell II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 81 away

creates per match

Sabadell II
0.82
Montañesa
0.68

allows per match

Sabadell II
1.41
Montañesa
1.47

finishing

Sabadell II+0.00on par
Montañesa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell II ↓

Montañesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sabadell II or draw
67%
Sabadell II or Montañesa
71%
Draw or Montañesa
62%

Winning margin

Sabadell II wins by 2+
16%
Montañesa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sabadell II 1+ goals
68%
Sabadell II 2+ goals
32%
Sabadell II 3+ goals
11%
Montañesa 1+ goals
65%
Montañesa 2+ goals
28%
Montañesa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sabadell II (draw refunded)
54%
Montañesa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell II at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Montañesa away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell II attack 0.82 + Montañesa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Montañesa attack 0.68 + Sabadell II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sabadell II scores more
38%
level
29%
Montañesa scores more
33%

Sabadell II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sabadell II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabadell II vs Montañesa

Sabadell II beat Montañesa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol del Poliesportiu Olímpia in Sabadell.